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POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF MAYAWATI
By M H AHSAN
The electoral victory scored by Ms Mayawati is so unique in the history of northern Indian politics, that it is bound to be followed by a trail of consequences. Whether they will be good or bad consequences will depend upon how long she remains in power and by what means. But the choice of means lies also with her as far as one can see, just as it did in shaping the strategy of the latest election which has brought her to this stature.
Other leaders of the lower castes have also scored remarkable victories in their own times and states, for example in Tamil Nadu. But rarely has a dalit leader done so, mainly on the shoulders of dalit power, and that too in Uttar Pradesh, which has probably the highest number of higher caste voters with a history of dominance in electoral politics. Her victory is not only yet another step in the decades-long movement of electoral power from the higher to lower socio-economic strata of India. It is uniquely significant in four respects.
First, it can empower an even larger section of Indian society than did the last preceding steps which were taken in UP and Bihar during the past two decades, but which mainly benefited Yadavs and the castes and sub-castes immediately below them. They number less than dalits. Thus Mayawati now has a larger constituency to bank on than the preceding Yadav leaders or the still earlier higher caste leaders had. Second, much larger numbers of high caste voters — and probably Muslim voters too — supported her than had supported the earlier transfers of power from the high to the less high castes of UP.
That means a new message has gone home. Third, it has shown, for the first time, that even in UP a party which is mostly a platform of the more poor can win an election against the significantly less poor if it makes the right alliances. In fact, this election became mainly a contest between an alliance of the more poor on the one hand, against the less rich on the other. And fourth, it has opened the door a bit wider for a restructuring of political party alliances across the country.
No political alliance, however strong it may have proved to be in its own time and state, can reshape the polity of the country as a whole unless it also wins respect and acceptance more widely and for longer. Mayawati now has a stronger chance of winning them than she had before. But that only further underscores the importance of the means and methods she uses to inspire her future with her present performance. Her earlier past had been discouraging in some respects. But the immediate past has given even less assurance that she will not allow petty revengefulness to drag the curtain down on her.
The wholesale transfer of dozens of officials would be worrisome enough, plus the dismissal of some without due investigations. But more worrisome is the signal it gives that the chance to settle scores may again take precedence over what should be her immediate priorities if she is to meet the challenge of greatness that awaits her. If she did meet that challenge, she would benefit the whole constituency of the "more poor" that she had created and that has now elected her. At the same time, she would win the support of many other state-level parties in other states which feel that the balance in Centre-states relations which had been intended by those who made the Constitution, has been disturbed and it should be restored, or which feel that the major states of northern and southern India fail to share their platforms even on issues which should be of concern to both.
Economists tell us that India now has sufficient Indian as well as foreign exchange resources to finance development strategies which can lift most of the country’s poor above the poverty line, and that the reason why they remain poor is that the administration has not yet become efficient enough to deliver the benefits of these strategies to all those who need them. If that is so, Mayawati should ask herself what is the best thing she should do in so important a state as UP to build the self-confidence and the competence in the administration: start a witch-hunt first, or first sift gossip and rumour from facts, compulsion of circumstances from wilful wickedness, and then take action with an eye to the future?
At the same time, there are also reports that a few former officials who are known for their ability are among Mayawati’s most trusted advisers and executive agents. She and they must know what the whole country knows, that any party or combination of parties that is in power, or can hope to be in power in New Delhi during the next few years, would not only hope for but crave and compete for the support of such a major state as UP. At present this must mean the support of Mayawati, who for the first time ever has come to power in Lucknow without depending upon other parties.
Can this combination of many favourable circumstances mean that Mayawati has a better opportunity now than others have had for building some horizontal and vertical inter-state structures which can lend stability to her own future too, apart from the future of other parties which feel they are vulnerable to malice in New Delhi? If that is so, she must begin with a rearrangement of functions and responsibilities in Lucknow itself as soon as she feels she has sufficiently done with hunting heads. She should set the parameters. But within them she must leave the day to day management of UP in a few trusted and competent hands. That would set her free for judging how far how many other state level leaders will join her in setting New Delhi free to look after national affairs which only the Centre can manage if they are to be managed as they should be.
We need intelligent and planned decentralisation, not one which occurs because no one has the time to look beyond his nose. It may be best for her to start with her next-door neighbour, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is similarly dealing with the mess left behind by the predecessor. But nothing is more certain than that if Mayawati does the same in UP the mess will be bigger, if for no other reason than that a misguided sense of their newly won power will lead her followers astray — and it has already started to do — just as surely as caste resentments had misled Yadavs in the early years of their ascendancy in Bihar and UP.
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